Posted: Tue, 6 Sep 2011 03:59 PM - 8,835 Readers
By: Marty Toohey & Tony Plohetsk
The wildfires burning across Central Texas struck with a breathtaking suddenness, but to those who have been paying close attention, the conflagration is less a surprise than an inevitability.
"This is not just the perfect storm," said Kevin Baum, a retired assistant fire chief in Austin who studied the city's wildfire threat in 2003. "It's the perfect setup."
The fires struck west of Austin, in places like Spicewood at the edge of the rocky Hill Country. And they hit even more dramatically to the east, scorching more than 25,000 acres of the relatively flat pinewoods of Bastrop County. Fire crews are concentrating on saving lives and putting out the fires, and in most cases have not determined what caused the first sparks.
But one thing is clear: those sparks would not be so dangerous if people were not moving en masse to the fire-prone areas around Austin.
"These (fires) are happening at a time when we've got a fair amount of sub-suburban growth," said Roger Wittie, head of the Environmental and Agricultural Management Department at Tartleton State University. "In many cases, you're building around fuels."
That became a problem over the weekend. The hottest summer on record combined with a hard drought to create a tinderbox. Winds fueled by a Gulf storm appear to have been the final piece.
The fires may have sprung up overnight, and the drought may be a year in the making, but the conditions Baum is worried about go further back.
As part of a Ph.D. program, Baum studied Austin's wildfire threat and compiled his findings into a first-of-its kind study in 2003. It concluded that West Austin is at serious risk for the same wildfires that have torn through California in recent years. Homes sit atop ridges, plants are often dried out in the semi-arid conditions, and winds like those seen over the weekend carry sparks.
"Simply stated, the conditions in West Austin and Travis County as we find them today may be perfect for a natural wildfire disaster of significant (and prophetic) proportions," Baum stated in his 2003 study.
"It's like living on the coast," he said Monday. "It is beautiful, and everyone wants to live on the hill with the beautiful views, but you put yourself on the top of a matchstick."
The topography is different east of Austin, but dangers remain. In Bastrop County, part of the appeal is the solitude that comes from living on larger lots. Some lots are now covered in ashes.
Baum said that in today's climate, anything hot, including a lawn mower engine, can spark such a fire.
"People in general are alert enough to know that you have to be careful with ignited products, but I don't think they understand the scale and the dimension of the risk we are currently facing," he said.
One way nature prevents a catastrophic fire is by periodically sending smaller ones. They burn up underbrush, dead trees and detritus that could grow into piles large enough to send a flame streaking into the canopy.
Baum and Wittie said human development complicates that process. Even smaller fires can threaten homes. Most fire departments conduct controlled burns intended to mimic nature, but even that is difficult when temperatures rise and rain stops falling, they said.
"It's just a bad situation," Wittie said. "What we need is rain. We need to green the fuels back up."
