Posted: Mon, 13 Jul 2009 07:58 AM - 8,470 Readers
By: Andrea Lorenz, Patrick George
The weather phenomenon has brought floods to the area in past years.Relief from an almost two-year drought could arrive in Central Texas in the form of El Niño, meteorologists say — but probably not until November.
Scientists with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced last week that El Niño, the periodic warming of the Pacific Ocean, has arrived.
In the Austin area, El Niño usually means rain — and lots of it — in the winter months, which could mean much-needed relief from the drought, said Chris Morris, a meteorologist in the National Weather Service's New Braunfels office. El Niño isn't likely to bring rainfall to the area until November, Morris said, although chances of rain could increase in September.
For the rest of this week, and probably the rest of the summer, chances for rain will be extremely low, Morris said.
Although it's difficult to predict just how much rain El Niño will bring to Central Texas, it has previously caused major flooding. For example, from November 1991 to January 1992, Austin saw just under 20 inches of rain, nearly triple the 7-inch average for those months.
Since September 2007, Morris said, Central Texas has received a little over 34 inches of rain at Camp Mabry.
In San Antonio, the past 22 months have been the driest on record.
Because of the drought, there's about 77 percent less water entering the Highland Lakes from the Colorado River than average, and if trends continue, a record low amount will be reached, according to the Lower Colorado River Authority. About 1.1 million people get their water from Lakes Travis and Buchanan.
Although the area's water supply isn't in danger — the lakes were built to store water from rainier periods to help at times like these, according to the LCRA — recreation on the lakes has taken a hit.
The only open public boat ramp on Lake Travis, at Mansfield Dam, could be closed later this summer. The lake level must be at least 640 feet above sea level to keep it open, and the LCRA predicts Lake Travis will fall below 635 feet by Sept. 1.
Flow rates of area rivers are also below average, but that didn't stop tubers from floating the Guadalupe, Comal and San Marcos rivers Sunday.
The Lions Club Tube Rental saw a record number of customers on July 4, manager George Laktas said.
"We're staying busy; we've got water in the river," Laktas said.
The lowered levels on the Guadalupe River have driven more customers to the Comal River, said Katherine Hendrix of Texas Tubes in New Braunfels.
She said the Comal River business has been very busy.
"We've had three- or four-hour-long waits just to rent tubes," Hendrix said.
