Posted: Thu, 9 Jul 2009 03:46 PM - 6,028 Readers

By: Burton Fitzsimmons

If you remember 2007 in Central Texas, with one of the coolest and wettest summers in living memory, you understand the power of El Nino for our area.

As much as 19 inches of rain bombed Marble Falls that June, Lake Travis refilled, and Austin ended summer with more than 44 inches of rain - well above the annual average of 33 inches.

El Nino, the cyclical warming of the sea surface along the equatorial Pacific, typically occurs every two to five years for a period of about one year each event.

Experts at National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center offer a "wetter than normal" forecast for Texas starting in October and lasting through May 2010, which is another sign of good news we simply haven't seen in years.

Ever since the beginning of this past May, water temperatures across the equatorial Pacific have warmed significantly. In the last four weeks alone (ending July 4), seas warmed a full degree above normal in most of the eastern Pacific.

Cooler than normal sea surface temperatures from fall 2008 through February 2009 suggested the La Nino was still holding strong. Then, through April, temperatures returned to a neutral or near normal configuration, the sign of a neutral period in the El Nino cycle affectionately termed "La Nada."

An ensemble of computer models predicts the peak of this upcoming El Nino may occur in late fall or early winter 2010, a period when we should prepare for big improvements in weather from the exceptional drought status across Central and South Texas.

Remember, most droughts end in flood.

How powerful this upcoming period of El Nino will be is still up in the air. NOAA predicts the cycle may wrap up by the end of winter 2010.

Even if we only see half the rain of 2007, it'll be a very positive recovery from the worst area of drought in the U.S. for much of 2009.

*  Story Contributed by: Burton Fitzsimmons